THE FUTURE OF THE INTERSTATES
While the economic and social benefits of the first 40 years of
the interstate highway system are clear, the gargantuan load of
automobiles, light trucks, buses, and commercial vehicles has taken
a toll on the interstates.
Condition of the Interstates: Despite the important role
played by the interstates in the nation's economy and quality of
life, the system requires renewed investment. Many portions of the
interstate highway system are strained to capacity, increasing
delays and air pollution and dampening economic activity. This is
not surprising. The interstate highways were built to accommodate 20
years of traffic growth. By 1985, half of the system had reached its
design life, and, by 1995, 90 percent of the system was 20 years or
older. The original interstate highway system, authorized when the
nation's population was less than 170 million, is not much more
extensive today when the nation's population approaches 270 million.
Including non-interstate super-highways, expressways and toll roads
now total 55,000 miles, 30 percent more than the interstate highway
system as conceived in the late 1950s, but the nation's population
has increased by 70 percent over the same period.
From 1982 to 1992, urban traffic congestion increased by more
than 15 percent.
NOTE: Urban Roadway Congestion-1982
to 1992.
The percentage of urban interstate lane miles operating at above
80 percent of capacity at peak hour has nearly doubled since 1975.
NOTE: 1994 Highway Statistics.
And, rural interstate congestion, though minimal compared to that
of urban areas, continues to grow.
At the same time, the physical structure of the system is in need
of attention.
Approximately 60 percent of interstate pavements are rated from
fair to poor.
NOTE: Clifford M. Comeau, "Condition
and Performance of the Interstate System - After 40
Years," Public Roads (Washington, United States
Department of Transportation, Federal Highway
Administration, Summer 1996).
Six percent of interstate bridges are structurally deficient.
NOTE: Calculated from 1995 Status of
the Nation's Surface Transportation System: Conditions
and Performance (Washington, DC: United States
Department of Transportation, 1995),
Structural deficiency can
result in catastrophic bridge failure and loss of life (within the
past 15 years, there have been two well publicized bridge collapses
claiming 13 lives.
NOTE: Mianus River Bridge on I-95 in
Connecticut (1983) and Schoharie Creek Bridge on I-95 in
New York (1987).).
The Imperative for Interstate Investment: Expensive as
they might appear, improvements are necessary. According to reports
prepared for the Federal Highway Administration, the pace of
super-highway lane construction in urban areas over one million
would have to be increased substantially to stop the growth of
traffic congestion. Yet, the annual cost of such would be only $3
billion --- a fraction of the peak annual construction costs
incurred during the 1960s and 1970s, and a 2.5 percent increase in
the nation's annual surface transportation budget.
NOTE: Lane mile data from Texas
Transportation Institute, 1995. Per lane mile cost
calculated from data in 1995 Status of the Nation's
Surface Transportation System: Conditions and
Performance adjusted to reflect 1996 prices.
NOTE: 1994 surface transportation
expenditures were approximately $120 billion (1996$),
$95 billion for highways and $25 billion for transit.
The safety impacts alone would
justify such expenditures. Each new ten mile segment of urban
interstate could be expected to save, on average, two lives and 250
injuries annually. Over a ten year period, this urban interstate
improvement rate could save 1,950 lives and avert 240,000 injuries.
NOTE: Based upon improved lower
fatality and injury rate of the interstate highway
system relative to the balance of the federal aid
primary system. Average urban interstate assumed to be
six lanes. 10 year projection assumes that 1,104 lane
miles of urban interstates would be built per year over
the period.
The economic
impacts of improved safety would exceed the cost of the new roadway
in less than 15 years.
NOTE: Conversion from lane miles to
roadway assumes an average of six traffic lanes. Lives
and injuries avoided based upon comparison of rates
between interstates and the federal aid-primary system.
Construction costs based on data in 1995 Status of
the Nation's Surface Transportation System: Conditions
and Performance converted to 1996$.
Each new 10 mile segment of
rural interstate could be expected to save one life and 40 injuries
per year.
The increase in traffic congestion takes an additional economic
toll in terms of excess fuel consumption and the costs of delay. In
1992, these urban "congestion costs" were $34 billion and were
increasing at an annual rate of approximately $2.1 billion.
--- nearly two thirds of the annual cost of required capacity
expansion ($3.0 billion, above). Urban super-highway (largely
interstate) congestion increases motor vehicle related pollution by
consuming more than 14 billion excess gallons of fuel annually ---
58 gallons of fuel per household. This is enough fuel to transport
the average household 1,250 miles by automobile (equal to trips from
New York to Minneapolis, Seattle to San Diego, Milwaukee to Orlando
or Denver to New Orleans).
NOTE: In 1996 dollars. Super-highway
congestion costs estimated using relationship of freeway
delay hours to total system delay hours. Calculated
using data for 50 large urban areas in Urban Roadway
Congestion - 1982 to 1992.
A report on 1989 conditions indicated that free traffic flow
could be achieved through super-highway (largely interstate)
expansions in even the most congested urban areas.
NOTE: 1989 Roadway Congestion
Estimate and Trends (College Station, Texas: Texas
Transportation Institute, July 1992).
By far the highest cost --- $8 billion --- would be required in
Los Angeles --- considerably less than that urban area is spending
to build urban rail systems that are unlikely to significantly
improve traffic flow.
NOTE: In 1996$, based upon costs
calculated from 1995 Status of the Nation's Surface
Transportation System: Conditions and Performance.
$1 billion would be required in Washington, D.C. Again, while
this is a considerable figure, it represents a relatively small
investment compared to other non-highway transportation investments
that have failed to reduce the area's traffic congestion.
There has been considerable opposition to expansion of urban
interstates, much of it based upon the presumption that expanded
interstate capacity is quickly consumed by new traffic. Yet, traffic
congestion has declined in two of the nation's fastest
growing urban areas (between 1982 and 1992).
NOTE: Urban Roadway Congestion -
1982 to 1992.
In Phoenix, traffic congestion declined by six percent from 1982
to 1992, while population increased by 40 percent (1980-1990).
In Houston, traffic congestion declined by four percent from 1982
to 1992, while population increased by 20 percent (1980-1990).
A major component of the improved traffic conditions in these two
urban areas has been a substantial program to build and expand
super-highways. By contrast, the average large urban area
experienced a 20 percent increase in traffic congestion, while
population increased by approximately 10 percent.
Nationally, improvement of interstate highways and other
super-highways to support anticipated rates of economic growth would
require an annual increase in capital expenditures of approximately
$3.5 to $4.5 billion --- $24 billion from 1997 through 2002.
NOTE: Calculated from data for the
"Economic Efficiency" scenario in 1995 Status of the
Nation's Surface Transportation System: Conditions and
Performance.
Recent
analysis by the Congressional Budget Office indicated that federal
highway expenditures could be increased by nearly $28 billion from
1997 through 2002 --- more than enough to pay for the required
investment, through use of existing and anticipated Highway Trust
Fund resources.
NOTE: Calculated from data in Statement
of Robert A. Sunshine, Deputy Assistant Director for
Budget Analysis, Congressional Budget Office, on The
Highway Trust Fund, before the Subcommittee on Surface
Transportation, Committee on Transportation and
Infrastructure, United States House of Representatives,
May 16, 1996.
Further, even
after 2002, highway user fees will continue to produce more revenue
than is spent on building, maintaining, and patrolling the nation's
highways --- considerably more than would be required to fund the
investments required to preserve the positive economic contribution
of the interstate highway system to the national economy.
The economic imperative: The nation's continued economic
growth depends, in part, on an interstate highway system that grows
along with the nation. Population growth will continue. All
demographic trends indicate overwhelmingly that people will continue
to pursue the "American Dream" of the house in the suburbs and a
high degree of personal mobility. But the challenges to U.S.
economic growth are substantial. International competitors are
becoming stronger, while total compensation per U.S. employee is
increasing at lower rates that before. If traffic congestion is
permitted to worsen, then American consumers will pay a heavy toll,
in higher prices due to higher shipping costs, jobs lost due to
foreign competition, reduced employment opportunities, and less
leisure time.
America's Future Depends on the Interstates
It has been a momentous 40 years. Interstate highways have
contributed to the economic growth and quality of life in America.
Indeed, the interstate highway system has been a major factor in
making the United States the homogeneous nation that it has become.
The interstate highway system, and other super-highways, will
continue to make a positive contribution to the nation's economy and
quality of life. This requires that investments be made to preserve
and expand the mobility that has helped to make Americans the
world's most prosperous people, America the world's premier economic
power, and provided an international model for expanding freedom of
mobility for virtually everyone. In important dimensions, the future
of the nation depends upon the interstate highway system.
The American Highway Users Alliance
The American Highway Users Alliance traces its roots to 1932,
when it was chartered by General Motors President Alfred Sloan to
"get the farmers out of the mud." The Highway Users (knows as the
Highway Users Federation from 1970 to 1995) serves the long-term
interests of business and industry in transportation. Many
industries are dependent on highways to be successful, including
automotive, travel and shipping. Almost 80 percent of all U.S.
Expenditures for passenger and freight transportation --- $800
billion annually --- are highway related. Highway passengers spend
over $350 billion per year on their travel --- about 12 percent of
the nation's GDP. And freight movement over highways counts for 80
percent of all shipping.
The Highway Users works for better, safer highway transportation
through public policy analysis, public information and education,
and legislative and regulatory advocacy. It believes that good
highways are essential to a strong economy and the costs of
improving highway transportation should be borne by the users.
Led by President William D. Fay, the Highway Users has over 500
individual and 100 corporate/association members and affiliates in
18 states.
The Authors
Wendell Cox and Jean Love are public policy consultants with the
Wendell Cox Consultancy.
Both have worked on projects in the United States, Canada,
Australia, Africa, Europe, and New Zealand. They have recently
established an Internet public policy journal, The Public
Purpose.
Mr. Cox was appointed to three terms (1977-85) on the Los Angeles
County Transportation Commission by Mayor Tom Bradley and has
chaired national committees on energy conservation and urban transit
planning. He also serves on the steering committee of the bi-ennial
International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Surface
Passenger Transport. He holds an MBA from Pepperdine University in
Los Angeles.
Ms. Love has performed research in a variety of fields, and
edited three editions of a comprehensive public policy manual
(Legislative Issue Briefs). She organized the Third
International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Surface
Passenger Transport, held in Toronto in 1993. She earned a Masters
degree from Southern Illinois University in Edwardsville.
They are co-authors of many books and papers, including Moving
America Competitively, The Livable American City and
People, Markets, and Government: A State Legislator's Guide to
Economics. Their practice is based in the St. Louis area.
APPENDICES